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Modeling Airside Operations at Major Airports for Strategic Decision Support

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Modeling Airside Operations at Major Airports for Strategic Decision Support
November 2015
Modeling Airside
Operations at Major
Airports for Strategic
Decision Support
tech transfer summary
MTC RESEARCH PROJECT TITLE
Modeling Airside Operations at Major
Airports for Strategic Decision Support
SPONSORS
Lambert – St. Louis International Airport
Midwest Transportation Center
U.S. Department of Transportation Office
of the Assistant Secretary for Research
and Technology (USDOT/OST-R)
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR
L. Douglas Smith, Professor and Director
Center for Business and Industrial
Studies in collaboration with Center for
Transportation Studies
University of Missouri – St. Louis
314-516-6108 / [email protected]
MORE INFORMATION
www.intrans.iastate.edu/
MTC
Iowa State University
2711 S. Loop Drive, Suite 4700
Ames, IA 50010-8664
515-294-8103
The Midwest Transportation Center (MTC) is
a regional University Transportation Center
(UTC). Iowa State University, through its
Institute for Transportation (InTrans), is the
MTC lead institution.
MTC’s research focus area is State of Good
Repair, a key program under the 2012 federal
transportation bill, the Moving Ahead for
Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP21). MTC research focuses on data-driven
performance measures of transportation
infrastructure, traffic safety, and project
construction.
The opinions, findings, and conclusions
expressed in this publication are those of the
authors and not necessarily those of the project
sponsors.
The team developed a discrete-event simulation model, calibrated
it with detailed activity data for an entire year, verified the model’s
ability to represent essential spheres of airport activity, and
illustrated its application to study system performance under
several operating scenarios.
Background
Major commercial airports rely on multiple parties for safe and efficient
operations. Air traffic controllers coordinate approaches to the airport,
aircraft movements on the ground, and departures from the airport.
Airline personnel coordinate activities on the parking ramps and
at passenger gates. Third parties may service aircraft at gates or at
designated stations (e.g., for de-icing).
In recent years, major airlines in the US have altered their route
structures and schedules to concentrate their flight activity at a few
mega-hubs. Consolidation of this sort and hub operations of express
freight carriers strain some airports while other airports now have
excess capacity.
System performance is affected by the concentration of airline flight
schedules, activities of air express carriers, taxiway and ramp layouts,
resources allocated for gate operations, air traffic control (ATC)
procedures, adverse weather conditions, and traffic backups at major
connecting hubs.
Problem Statement
Tens of billions of dollars are spent each year worldwide on airport
infrastructure to promote safe, efficient, and environmentally friendly
operations. Airport layouts, allocations of gates to carriers, and the
manner of deploying ground equipment or personnel can dramatically
affect passenger delays, fuel consumption, and air and noise pollution.
Airport planners require reliable information about how different
spheres of airport activity interact and how system performance would
change with alterations to physical infrastructure or operating practices.
Strategic decision support is needed to provide ways of better utilizing
existing assets in some environments, intelligently expanding them in
others, and selectively removing assets from service where costly excess
capacity exists.
FAF*=Final Approach Fix
Scope of modeled activity for the project
Project Results
For this project, we developed and calibrated a
discrete-event simulation model that captures essential
interactions of “airside” activity at commercial airports.
Our model, calibrated with detailed flight and gate
data for an entire year’s activity at Lambert - St. Louis
International Airport, represents the interactions of
key system components with sufficient granularity to
study the effects of different planning scenarios and
operating rules.
Project Description
We modeled airport operations using Arena software
by moving simulated aircraft through a network of
staged queues—some physical, others conceptual.
• Ground movements are controlled by signals and
routings that consider capacities of ramps and
taxiway segments.
• Aircraft arrivals are generated by a Statistical
Analysis System (SAS) pre-processor and placed in
conceptual queues at the final approach fix (FAF) for
an active runway.
• Scenarios are defined by active runways for takeoffs
and arrivals, weather in airspace sectors through
which arrivals and departures take place, and
conditions at major hub airports.
• Movements of aircraft are simulated using lognormal
distributions from point to point until the designated
flight’s activity at the airport is completed (with
termination at the gate, or, if continuing to another
destination, after turnaround and departure).
• Statistical models for individual airlines are used to
set the probability of delay and duration of delay at the
gate dependent on time of day and whether the flight is
originating or continuing.
• Entities for flights that terminate at the airport are
removed from the simulation after reaching the gate and
the gate is then made available for originating flights that
are generated by the model according to schedule (with
random perturbation if desired) or for a new arrival.
• Dispatching strategies are imposed by routing aircraft
among staging points on the airport surface and
releasing them with dynamic priorities that reflect the
decision rules in force.
• Detailed logs are created for each simulated event
and statistical analysis and reporting of simulated
performance are accomplished externally using SAS.
Calibration and validation of the model required
integration of gate data maintained by individual airlines
and flight data that are maintained by ATC systems for
aircraft that operate under instrument flight rules (IFRs).
We demonstrated the application of the model to
investigate the effects of different operating conditions and
dispatching strategies upon delays, ramp time, and taxi
time for individual airlines.
Implementation Readiness and
Benefits
Our simulation prototype was created to facilitate
the analysis of airport ground operations with due
consideration of the major intersecting spheres of activity
and responsibility. It captures essential characteristics of
the system in each operational sphere and links them with
staged queues at the interfaces.
Optimizing heuristics may be embedded in portions of the
Arena simulation model and the effects of their solutions
may be tested with consideration of stochastic system
behavior. Solutions from deterministic optimizing models
may also be driven through the model to see their effects
on other aspects of the operation and to examine whether
promised gains from their use are achievable in a stochastic
environment.
The simulation prototype was originally constructed to
represent traffic in the dominant operating environment at
Lambert - St. Louis International Airport (using runways
30L and 30R for departures and arrivals) and behavior was
validated using complementary flight data for just a few
weather scenarios.
Direct observations of ramp activity were conducted
with the airport planning manager. Each of the research
associates gained further experience with SAS for
multivariate modeling of system performance and
estimating dynamic model parameters. We added detail to
the Arena simulation model that allows analysis of activity
on all Lambert - St. Louis International runways.
Focus of analysis shifted to address questions about the
possible effects of using runways differently—namely
segregating propeller traffic from turbine traffic for arrivals
and directing the former to runway 06-24 while utilizing
runway 11-29 for departures. This alternative was simulated
while parallel air traffic controllers experimented with
these strategies in the actual operating environment.
In the course of this project, the model was extended
and calibrated for opposite traffic flows (using runways
12L and 12R), occasional traffic on runway 06-24
when strong crosswinds require such use, and use
of runway 11-29 for occasional westerly departures
from Terminal 1 and occasional easterly arrivals to
Terminal 1. Continued streaming of data for flight
operations to the university will enable us to compare
changes of performance in the operating environment
with predicted changes in performance from the
simulation model.
Models for fuel burn considering taxi time and idle
times under power could be appended to the report
generators to estimate fuel burned and emissions
generated under alternative airport configurations and
operating practices. Further refinements estimating
stop-and-go behavior on runways and taxiways,
depending on congestion levels, could provide better
estimates.
In sum, our modeling approach provides a balance
between the highly detailed engineering simulations
of airspace and airports with microscopic detail, on
one hand, and operations research models designed
for strategic optimization of parts of the system, on
the other hand. It incorporates necessary details of
the operating environment and avoids the “flaw of
averages” when studying system behavior.
Our approach is sufficiently efficient that
complementary groundside operations (such as
crossdocking facilities for cargo carriers) could be
added. Furthermore, it would be possible to add details
of flight activity at connected hub airports to examine
the consequences of airline scheduling practices on
individual airlines.
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